Exercise progress is an intermediate state, not a conclusion
A progress finding from one exercise round does not by itself end the series; the predefined completion criterion decides whether to continue.
Read Analysis →[ INSIGHTS ]
Insights
Rico Kerstan’s articles on decisions, AI, leadership, crisis management and organisational resilience.
Articles on decisions, AI, leadership, crisis management and organisational resilience. These texts connect observations from practice with research and methodological analysis.
Consolidate each workshop result instead of pooling ratings
Ratings from several resilience workshops do not form one reliable sample; comparability grows from consolidated results from each workshop.
Read Analysis →Measurement follows the communication channel
A telephone route installed only for measurement, absent in a real crisis, changes the exercise. Check first what data your own channels provide.
Read Analysis →Define decision latitude when delegating tasks
A delegated task does not automatically transfer decision authority. Leadership should state which choices the receiving function may make on its own.
Read Analysis →Brief exercise observers together and give them a shared guide
Different observer records can suggest team differences that are not there. A shared briefing, a common guide and paired observers limit that risk.
Read Analysis →Align central terms before cooperating in a crisis
The same professional terms can denote different procedures and duties in different organizations. Partners planning cooperation should clarify what each central term names.
Read Analysis →Align source clocks before reconstructing an exercise timeline
Telephone logs and observer notes may use different time references. Their relationship must be established before they can support a reliable account of response sequences.
Read Analysis →A corrected finding is not necessarily improved capability
Workshop corrections need an explanation: factual corrections and revised assessment criteria must not be reported as capability gains over time.
Read Analysis →Agree the support arrangement before announcing it
Temporary shared premises require workable conditions for both organizations before they can give consistent public information on services, opening hours and access.
Read Analysis →Hand over the rationale at shift change
At handover, the incoming team needs the rationale for an ongoing decision and any unresolved question that affects its implementation.
Read Analysis →Examine the dependency before adding more training
Another training assignment can leave an avoidable dependency unchanged. Action planning should first examine whether the work itself can be organized differently.
Read Analysis →Several decisions may address a single problem
A long decision log does not establish broad crisis coverage. Group related actions by the problem they address before interpreting the number of entries.
Read Analysis →Record why an option was rejected
The decision log records the chosen action. A focused observation task can preserve why a serious alternative was rejected.
Read Analysis →A planning assumption needs a review trigger
A crisis team should identify the information that would invalidate a key assumption and trigger another decision.
Read Analysis →Explain maturity-rating differences before combining them
A resilience workshop should record the assumptions behind different ratings before agreeing a consolidated finding.
Read Analysis →Make assumed external support explicit in an exercise
Assumed assistance is not a confirmed commitment. The exercise brief should preserve that distinction for the subsequent debrief.
Read Analysis →Reconstruct what the team knew before judging its decision
Exercise reviews need the information available at the time, rather than a judgment built around what became known later.
Read Analysis →P-DRIVEN: Observations from an Exploratory Comparison
An exploratory three-team exercise showed differences between participant ratings, external observations and decision episodes. The facilitator-supported team showed a noteworthy second-round pattern.
Read Analysis →When Your Risk Model Becomes the Risk
Uncritical reliance on AI-assisted risk scores can weaken independent assessment. Separate risk estimates from uncertainty and preserve an operational route for challenge.
Read Analysis →Documentation Is Not Crisis Management
Crisis plans specify intended arrangements. Readiness assessment also needs evidence that the people involved can apply them under the conditions being considered.
Read Analysis →The Speed Trap: When AI Decisions Outrun Human Judgment
AI execution can outrun the review a decision requires. Match authority, information and review time to consequence, reversibility and the actual task.
Read Analysis →Crisis Exercises: Measure, Don't Just Play
Crisis exercises need explicit learning objectives, transparent review criteria and a description of scenario demands. Qualitative observations and numerical summaries serve different purposes.
Read Analysis →Systemic Fragility in Hyperconnected Organizations
Connected workflows can transmit disruption through shared dependencies and correlated responses. Map propagation routes and test containment, including selective decoupling.
Read Analysis →Crisis Staff in Mid-Sized Companies: Match the Structure to the Work
A crisis arrangement needs usable roles, authority and practice. Mid-sized companies should select the structure from their tasks and available capability.
Read Analysis →Three Capabilities for Assessing Crisis Resilience
Resistance, coping capability and cooperation capability address different preparedness requirements. Assess their interaction against the services an organization needs to maintain.
Read Analysis →Buying Support and Building Resilience: Define the Contribution
Products, training and external advice can support resilience. Their contribution must be connected to resources, responsibilities and the work the organization needs to perform.
Read Analysis →Commission a Second Opinion That Resolves the Disagreement
A second assessment should identify the disputed condition, consequence or response. Comparing the reasoning enables a decision instead of merely supplying reassurance.
Read Analysis →Keep Uncomfortable Findings in Decision Work
An audit finding is not resolved when a more reassuring account replaces it. Management needs a reasoned decision about the condition, its consequences and the response.
Read Analysis →Cybersecurity Consulting: Specify the Work Behind the Document
AI can generate generic drafts. A consulting purchase still needs to distinguish text production, expert judgment and support in establishing an operational capability.
Read Analysis →Cybersecurity Advice, Continuity and Crisis Management: Different Tasks
Interfaces between information security, continuity and crisis management do not make them interchangeable. Select advice by the actual task and set concrete security objectives.
Read Analysis →Resilience Requires Cross-Functional Leadership Responsibility
Cybersecurity contributes essential evidence. Resilience reporting must connect specialist assessments with critical services, resources and leadership decisions.
Read Analysis →Examine Digital Safeguards and Their Dependencies
A digital safeguard can reduce exposure while introducing operating dependencies. Assess its protective contribution, prerequisites and failure consequences together.
Read Analysis →Examine the Decisions Behind a Satisfactory Crisis Outcome
A satisfactory crisis outcome does not explain which decisions contributed. My work uses coded observations to make specific exercise findings traceable.
Read Analysis →What Structured Crisis Exercise Review Can Measure
Communication counts, coding summaries and decision-episode review describe different aspects of an exercise. Their units and interpretation must remain explicit.
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